Why Does History Repeat Itself?

We blame the history for repeating itself but the more we see the fundamental behaviour of humans, the more we shall find that the phenomenon of history being able to repeat is primarily the reason why it can repeat. Confused??? Its fine... I was too, till I gave more thought to it... And what is worse, still am....

Let us look at the judicial system: A precedent is something that can hardly be ignored, unless the case facts have altered beyond a point. The precedent, then, is taken as the judgement to be made. If the case facts are similar, the culprit must be the same – is what we believe. Why don’t we question the judgement of the judge who set that precedent? How many amendments do we know of which sought to repeal previously held judgements. Most amendments are actually “appendment”s. So effectively, if in a dubious case the wrong guy is hanged to death, the precedence will be held true for all cases in future too – and repeatedly, the wrong guy will be dead. And undoubtedly, we’ll claim, “History Repeats Itself”.

The second instance is what I got interested in today – Technical Analysis of stocks. The chartists claim that trends are similar across times – that trends themselves have a trend!!! But where they cement the phenomenon is their belief that the trend cannot change, that if the prices went down this day in history, they will do so today!!! So the next time I recognise a trend, I know what will happen and thus will follow the trend... Thus I, inadvertently, become a part of self-fulfilling prophecy. I recognise the trend that prices will fall and start selling my stock. Everyone else also does the same. When it reaches a certain level and I realise that the historical trend predicts an increase now, I start to buy stock. Everyone else does too. Is it a wonder that the prices actually fall and rise “as predicted by Technical Analysis”? The chartists believe that market psyche remains constant to market stimuli, why they discount the human mental evolution is something I’m yet to understand. Probably a chartist or behavioural finance specialist can explain.

MMM

P.S.: I'm neither a Lawyer nor a Chartist. More importantly, I do not claim to be one. The above are simply ramblings which I hope will be answered over time.

Of negligence, dereliction and corruption

It was just one of those things that can get me started. I hate inefficiencies but not being the most efficient performer (despite my concentrated and hopefully dedicated efforts) myself, I try not to complain too...!!! I might crib about it but forget it soon enough. More often than not, I end up praising for perpetuator of inefficiency for the work done... (Remember my praises of mess food;))

It was a simple expression of anger on the inefficiency of a government-run body. The perpetuator of inefficiency (and may be dereliction too) was an employee of the govt. And it got me started... I’ll paste the chat that followed (me v/s XXX)

me: But its a big vicious circle..
and initially u feel angry against the perpetuator..
but if u analyse it, u cant blame him..
jungle hai... sher deer se dosti karega to khayega kya..!!
XXX: kya pata yar
deer kaun sher kaun
sab hi sher ho rakhe hain
me: initially we also thot the same..
but then i talked to the perpetuator
thn realised.. he cant really help it..
and his job is really his side business.. they provide jobs to many other families through other things they do. basically ek haath se 150/- dete hain aur doosre haath se 100/- lete hain..
XXX: kya pata yaar
me: hmm... not sayin sab doodh ke dhule hain..
XXX: perpetuator ke part pe bad job ka justification samajh nahi aata
me: hmm.. but yeah.. they are not so wrong also... one thin i realised on my village trip was tht we, with all the resources, can afford to think of idealism..
they cant..
XXX: probably true
me: just think.. 100/- pm se kitna kamata hoga.. aint tht amount u spend on treats and bisuda..
.
.
.
.
me: coz in engg coll days i wanted to teach the kids of the roadside labour..
but realised.. i cud do it coz i knew it was not somethin i was doing for eternity or a living..
XXX: hmm
ye bhi hai
me: if it was for a living.. then i'd not be teachin them beyond a point whr they stop dependin on me...
and if they doubt.. i'd ensure one of my friends takes the tuition and i teach in "school"
so in essence i'll safeguard my source of income if tht was so..
XXX: :(
me: corruption can and should be analysed from the point of view of the perpetuator..
XXX: hmm
me: just imagine.. how many times - almost daily - do we involve ourselves in corruption - how many times do we not do our duty - and then we complain of negligence, dereliction and mal-intention..
.
.
.
.
me: ok, wat is ur duty?
u knw ur capacity is infinite..
XXX: alag alag role mei alag hai
me: yups.. hv u performed everyone of them?
if u say no, i'll say.. "see"
if u say yes, i'll add two more things tht u cud and shud hv done..
so really u dont hv an answer..

MMM

P.S. @XXX: I really hope, ur anonymity is well preserved and this post is in no way offensive to you or your beliefs

Did Nokia borrow my idea???

“Business leaders do not spring from a classroom, they are born of THE COLOSSEUM.”

Thus says my T-shirt. Are ideas also born of THE COLOSSEUM? They sure seem to...

I had talked about how Nokia publicised its N97 through the B-School competition, THE COLOSSEUM some months back. But now that I think of it, it was not just publicity. The event was really a cradle of ideas – ideas that Nokia could use for not just N97 but also its other future products.

Think of it... The event was participated in by the most brilliant minds of the country. The suggestions came out after a detailed market analysis and touch-point study of the target consumers. What came out of the competition had to be top-notch. All that would be required after these ideas were generated would be communication of these ideas to few creative people who would then look for consumer target icons and use them to create super brands.

With an industry which keeps changing so fast, it really can be expensive to hire a top-notch ad agency to create advertising and marketing campaigns month after month. It would be very expensive to hire consultants for brand positioning and value propositioning. Going to B-Schools thus becomes an easy source of innovation (in terms of promotion strategies and not products). With the technology backing, all a marketing giant needs to do is float such competitions in the best B-Schools and the best design schools. One such competition would give them enough fodder to feed a few of their future products. At cost that would not even equal a single product launch, it sure is a very beneficial form of outsourcing.

PP

P.S. Case in point: My introduction to the idea was this (not same but similar to Nokia 7610's "Its not just a phone, Its who we are."):

"My first phone was a Nokia 3310. It solved my communication needs. Then I bought a Nokia 6360. Not just did it solve my communication needs but connected me to real-life through its colours. Then I bought a Nokia 6670. That connected me to my computer and I could read documents and listen to music. Then I bought an NGage. That kept me connected to my first love – games. Then I purchased a N72 – which with GPRS, Good Music, FM radio, Camera and decent video – changed the whole concept of a phone. I was now connected to the whole world. But my world was limited by the capacity of the phone. Then came the N95 which with its huge memory ensured I had a bigger repository of songs than I could ever listen to in one sitting, that stayed connected to my memories through the images and videos I could store. What next? Has Nokia transcended all boundaries and connected me to everything I ever wanted to be connected to? Now I need something that not just connects me to the world but is also an extension of myself. Thus it is not a phone but my virtual self."

Our Team: Karan, Angshu, Me

Mowgli's Welcome - Part 2

If you haven’t read this, read it first

The story so far: Mowgli comes to town chasing his dream. He flouts a few “rules” and is protected by the residents of the town, who take all the blame onto themselves in order to protect Mowgli. What Mowgli thought would be a very cool transition to the new town wasn’t a pleasant transformation anymore. And then...

The rift was widening by the day. The sessions meant to acclimatise Mowgli were shortened. (That the residents were busy with their political process was a fact not known to Mowgli.) One of these sessions, the sincere helpful residents who had decided to take up all the blame for Mowgli’s doings were banished from the town. The boiling point was reached... It never recovered from here. Mowgli had alienated more residents than he knew.

Meanwhile Mowgli did apply to the very important branding committee on insistence of the friendly guardian council. He was given few very strategic and important assignments which he earnestly completed. With the connectivity problems not helping, it was indeed a test of his gut and strength. He sourced information, woke up nights, but somehow, managed to finish his assignment and the council was indeed pleased by him. But the residents, they decided to vent their anger on him and the guardian council for want of someone to blame for the banishing of their fellows.

Around the same time, the Sun fell sic. His good work was about to be undone by others’ callous disregard to listen. And perturbed by the agendaless council meeting, he decided to withdraw, but then, giving in to the last minute nature of the process, decided to continue, though mellowed down. Things got back on track.

And it was the D-Day... It had to happen... Mowgli was good (or he thought he was) but one of his clan wasn’t careful enough. A leak happened. The guardian council read out the “actual” leak in front of all Mowgli’s clan. First the banished residents and now the leak... The brand of the town would have been tarnished forever. All Mowgli could was hang his head in shame and walk out of the sanctum sanctorum through the hallowed portals for his absolution. His path was lit by light of righteousness. His lone walk ended in front of his residence where he decided to take his oath – the oath that had been taken by his ancestors – the oath that would hence redefine his existence. The skies opened up and washed Mowgli and his clan of all his sins. He was now an official member of the town.

Mowgli's welcomed - Part 1

Disambiguation: For the benefit of the batch of 2009-11 and beyond, all further references will be hidden and/or disguised :)

It was the time of the year when anxiety rules on one end of the jungle and the fun of watching the anxiety on the other!!!

Mowgli was not new to the world, but this one, he had never seen. Mowgli had always looked to the day when he would walk into this acclaimed town with the feeling of having tamed all but a few big and wild cats of the jungle. This he thought would be a new life – the life he had always waited for – the life of a know-it-all, the life of the master. And it was... well not exactly as he had thought it would be J

The first day, the earlier residents of this town called him and told him to get his other friends. The residents were sweet and looked caring. He was glad. Suddenly out of nowhere did the mast haathi – the Lord Ganesha come in and started uprooting the camaraderie that was built up. All that was required was a prayer song to the Lord Venki to make the rook trace back his steps. All the world’s a stage – said the Bard. All the lawn’s a pool said the master(ess) and Mowgli knew he had to keep swimming (in all possible ways) to stay afloat. And stay afloat he did. But then, how long could he do that!!! He could really feel the earth rising and swallowing him up.

To bring some order to the things fast going out of control – the Sun (no typo) was born... Yes The Sun – the centre of all gravitation – the bull’s eye of all cupid arrows. The prodigy took over the reins and organised basic survival workshops for Mowgli and his clan. His was a small court – just one “sweet” hulk with the face of the god himself drinking coke relaxing on a bed of petals.

Mowgli was glad. He was learning the life of the town. Though sometimes he did wish he was back in the jungle. The will to survive overpowered the need to sleep and soon everything seemed alright. Meanwhile, the other residents did try to catch up with Mowgli’s clan. Soon the residents knew more about the clan than the clan itself. The pure netizen climbed the summit of helpfulness, and unmindful of the gag imposed by the town council, reached out to Mowgli and his clan.

All was soon gonna change. The goat was being readied for the grand feast – the catch being that it wouldn’t be able to enjoy the feast that he thought he was looking forward to. Little did Mowgli know that he had to stay away from the worldly pleasures he had once enjoyed in the forest. This was no forest and there were rules. The earlier residents decided to save Mowgli from the guardians and take it all upon themselves but the rift was created. Would life ever be the same again for Mowgli? Keep watching...

Why Am I Not an Alien!!!

Somehow, this post missed getting published... It has stayed in my drafts for long now and wants to see the light of publication...

Wants and wishes – the two human traits that I could surely have done without. Many of my friends say I’m an alien – not human – why am I not an alien!!! Why are they not correct!!! Why do I wish? Even if I do, why do I not wish for things that are more achievable like being the President of India, like earning a pay-check the size of India’s GDP or even say building my rooftop garden with palm trees dropping mangoes on the 9th moon of planet BCD-996 revolving around Alpha Unknownus in the galaxy Unreachabilus. I wish for things that are beyond what is termed ‘possible’ – a good friend for example.

Why am I writing this – well, something that helps when I have no one to turn to – when everyone else believes he’s got more important things than keeping up a promise – when these simple wishes of mine overpower me and cause me to think I better be an alien – not that with every passing instant I’m not becoming one. It starts with a simple NO and soon enough those also stop coming and I assume them anyways. Very soon I’ll have green ears which do not hear anything, green eyes which do not see the part of the world they do not want to and the brain which works only in cases where 2+2 = 4 and not when to bring two 2's together there are other 1s required – and heart – well it better not exist!!!

I Love "Love Stories"

And I read another book – looks like my frequency of reading books has improved – quite a bit at that. Compare 3 books in four years (during engineering) to 4 books in a year (since passing out of engineering). I generally kinda like all books which have a decent paced storyline or flow of thought. I hate books which expand and elaborate beyond my liking, Tolkien, for example. No wonder Dan Brown and Jeff Archer find themselves on my favourite list (not that it is a very illustrative list which they would be proud to be on). Anyways coming to the book...

It’s called “Anything for you, ma’am” and tagged – “an IITian’s love story”. Tushar Raheja, an IITDian of 2006 has more created a Hindi movie plot than written a book. – And must I say, a good one too (Do IITians even study engineering – first Chetan Bhagat and now Tushar Raheja!!!).

The initial plot seems a tad confusing – jumping timelines – flashbacks. And but for the chapter names stating the month in the timeline, I’d have really lost myself (Now I’m no voracious reader and have to make some effort to recall characters in books – nothing strange for me to get lost). But yes, Tushar does pack it with a lot of humour and IITD lingo that makes these jumps no less fun.

Pappi’s character is really colourful – the otherwise really nice surd who can be rough too when he sets out to it. Tejas, the gallant lover who will and does travel across the length of the country to get his first kiss, creating plots and schemes that would match the best Bollywood screenplays. Shreya, the so well painted picture of the simple Indian girl who can easily be the girl of everyone’s dreams (which guy doesn’t dream of a girl who doesn’t make him spend in 5-stars!!!). The friends of Tejas and the family – most of all the understanding and loving didi – I never had one and now wish I had (but then, I never had a “Shreya” either, and now I wish I had ). Those are pretty much the important characters in the plot – oh yes there is the khadoos old-fashioned - “Love? WTF!!!” - Chennai-dad who will start everything with a pooja.

The plot is fast paced and filled with humour and views of Tushar. Dunno why he interjected it with attempts at elaboration and elongation!!! Frankly, I hardly paid attention to his songs (Oh yes, there is a song for every occasion). I’d have gone into the details of the story but will refrain for the benefit of those who haven’t read the book and have stumbled here. There are some really funny moments and also few which will make you stand up and pull your hair out screaming, “WOW, Brilliant!!!”. The ending is the most beautiful part – the romantic setting created for Tejas by his new-found friend (Raju Bhaiya) on the serene sand of the Chennai beach, amidst the crashing waves under the blue sky.

“I looked into her eyes; eyes that said so much. She closed them as I brought my lips close to hers and touched them. The wind, the waves, the sky, the day, had all ceased to exist.”

Netherlands Stun England!!!

In the first match of the Twenty20 World Cup, we have a upset. The minnows have beaten the hosts England. England were going fine till the over ten, reaching 90. But then on it was a downward slide as Holland clawed their way back and restricted England to a very manageable 160 odd runs. Grooth and Borren led the Dutch chase as they chased down the English total in a nail-biting last-ball finish... England, more than anything were let down by their fielding. The English had many chances but couldn't get a direct hit on the stumps. It was a fitting finish that the Dutch won the match on an overthrow!!! My man-of-the-match: Grooth.

I just read a satirical on Cricinfo stating that India and Scotland would be in the finals. with Scotland having a slight edge. That doesn't seem so satirical anymore...

Microsoft Does It Again...

I just downloaded the Vista Service Pack 2. And guess what, it comes with an add-on to FireFox!!! I hated IE and switched over to FireFox and now this MS encroachment to Firefox... And that is not it – U can’t even uninstall this from your Firefox!!!

I generally support MS for all it does in making computing easy and accessible to all. Ya Ya.. LINUX groups will jump onto this statement saying Linux is better blah blah... I could never manage that (and I’m not a computer illiterate). I love the way MS gives me easy ways of doing things... who cares if I have that control on my comp or not. I don’t want the control that LINUX users promise – I want the ease that MS promises.... But things like these are what irritate me. Why shud it install something into Firefox which is not even its own!!! Do whatever you want with windows application but leave the others alone. Other than Office, I rarely use any other windows application... and I kinda prefer it that way. I dunno what the functionalities of this add-on are... I’m yet searching for that... If anyone’s got a clue, please post it over...

Its all in the head...

It’s the tough of the heart who win games, sets and matches. Tommy Hass was well on his way to another upset in the French Open (after Nadal’s shock defeat yesterday). Two sets to nil up, he was tied at in the third set. And just then, he went up 40-30 on Fedex serve. Break point at this stage was as good as the Match Point. He sent it wide... And that one point changed the direction of the whole match. He lost the set 6-4 and the next set all Fedex had to do was to send the ball over the net and in the court. Hass sprayed it all over the court. It was two sets apiece now. Tommy Haas found some glimpses of brilliance that he had displayed to win the first two sets. Suddenly, faced with a break-point, Haas cracked. The game was Federer’s. Not just that game, Federer sent three aces down in the next game to win the game at 40-0. And by the next game, Haas had all but given up. He lost the next game again at nought. Fedex keeps his career slam opportunity open. Federer was not at his best today – but all it took for Haas to stumble to defeat from the brink of history was one point and it was then that he had lost it in his head. On the court, it was a mere formality... Result: Federer wins in five sets after being down in the first two and reaches the quaterfinal.

PP

P.S.: The crowd may not realise it, but just as they celebrate the Fedex victory, 228 of their family is missing in AF 447. My heart goes out to the families. Being lost in an airplane crash is the worst that can happen – the status of the person can never be confirmed. Did the plane crash? Did anyone survive? Are they out there waiting for help? Are we looking in the right areas? Can they contact us somehow? How do we tell them to hold and that help is on its way?